Elections in Brazil: who are the voters of each candidate and why do they choose them?

The Brazilian voters, in general, do not vote for partisan proposals and yes for proximity to the candidates. There is a clear difference between the candidates "of the left" (Fernando Haddad, Ciro Gomes, Marina Silva and Guilherme Boulos), those of "center right" (Alvaro Dias, Henrique Meirelles, João Amoedo and Geraldo Alckmin) and the candidate "of right "(Jair Mesias Bolsonaro).

Despite this classification, the voters most interested in political and economic issues make a more radical difference: populists and non-populists.

The profile of the voters on each side of the party ideologies, obtained on the basis of the profile of each of the candidates, is the following according to a study by the BTG Pactual bank.

In the case of Bolsonaro, his supporters are between 25 and 40 years old, and secondary education. The voters of Petista Haddad have between 16 and 24 years old and incomplete primary education, the same group that votes for Gomes and Silva.



While Amoedo is more popular among college students between 25 to 40 years, and Alckmin among those over 60 with the primary complete. Dias becomes strong among the voters of the same age group, but with secondary education. And finally Meirelles has among its voters college students between 41 and 59 years.

The Instituto Paraná Pesquisas, on the other hand, asked the voters what would be the reason that would lead them to vote for each candidate, that is, the most representative issues in each case.

In this case Bolsonaro is mainly chosen to fight against violence and to represent a change; Gomes manages to get the voter to identify with him and is appreciated for his job creation projects, like Silva; Haddad is based on being the chosen of former President Lula da Silva; Alckmin is voted for his political experience and for being a good administrator.

Analyzing what each candidate offers the voter, it is observed that the voters of Jair Bolsonaro seek with their vote the fight against insecurity. He is the only candidate that shows this profile and this may be a point in Bolsonaro's favor, since the other candidates are not seen as an option for this concern of the Brazilian population, even more after the attack that he suffered and that left him out of presidential campaign.



Along with this characteristic, the representation of a new policy and its fight against corruption, something that has not been identified in the other candidates as an important characteristic, leaves Bolsonaro's elector practically without second options if he prioritizes these issues.

It is important to note that the fact that being the counter face of Lula, has virtually no representation in the election of the vote in favor of Bolsonaro.

Ciro Gomes voters already identify with the candidate's speech, which creates the risk of making a comment that may annoy his supporters, as in the election of 2002 in which, first in the polls, he was asked about what was the role of his wife (at the time) Patricia Pilar, and replied that she only slept at his side. This caused the loss of female support and fell in the polls, not getting to the second round.

After this episode he abandoned his will to be a candidate for the presidency of Brazil until now.



The most important characteristic of the candidate Fernando Haddad is to be the representative of former President Lula da Silva, today serving a sentence for corruption. This generates a lot of support but also a lot of negative feedback in the doubt of knowing if Haddad will manage to effectively run the country, or will be a political proxy of what Lula indicates from jail.

The electoral base of the PT remains strong and to obtain something close to 20% of the votes, it would leave it in the second round. Haddad disputes the same elector as Ciro Gomes and Marina Silva and there may be an address of the vote towards Haddad (against Ciro Gomes) at the time of the vote.

The case of Geraldo Alckmin has the most important characteristic for the voter to have political experience but plays against his lack of sympathy and speak in a language that does not please for the capture of votes.

One month before the elections

The voters of Jair Bolsonaro do not have other candidates that offer them the characteristics that Bolsonaro offers them. It is the only candidate below 3% in the vote option "without any particular reason" when the rest of the candidates have a percentage of at least 7,% in the same option.



Analyzing the reasons for each voter's vote for each candidate, it is observed that the characteristics that would motivate a Brazilian to vote in Bolsonaro are practically unique.

The same does not happen with the rest of the candidates.

What has been observed so far in the electoral polls, in which Bolsonaro not only does not go down as it rises in some, practically places him at the door of the second round.

Polarization, in light of the results of political analysts, is assured, remaining to be defined if the candidate representing the most populist sector of Brazilian society, will be Fernando Haddad or Ciro Gomes (it is taken for granted that Marina Silva did not arrive to that instance).

The funny thing is that in the scenarios for a second round, it is precisely with Ciro Gomes (now third placed) with whom Bolsonaro, would have greater difficulty to win.